{"id":557,"date":"2025-04-26T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-26T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/?p=557"},"modified":"2025-04-26T00:34:04","modified_gmt":"2025-04-26T00:34:04","slug":"brasil-no-topo-do-deficit-mundial-a-cronica-de-um-estado-que-se-recusa-a-cortar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/brasil-no-topo-do-deficit-mundial-a-cronica-de-um-estado-que-se-recusa-a-cortar\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil at the Top of the World&#039;s Deficit Chart: The Chronicle of a State that Refuses to Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Brazil&#039;s deficit isn&#039;t the result of economic necessity. It&#039;s the result of a political decision: spending more, promising more, nationalizing more\u2014while the population&#039;s future is unceremoniously mortgaged.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this post, we will examine how Brazil reached alarming levels of nominal deficit and public debt, according to a recent study by BTG Pactual, and what this reveals about the Brazilian government&#039;s inability to adapt to a sustainable economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Read also: <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/a-cultura-do-deficit-o-estado-que-nunca-aprende\/\">The Culture of Deficit: The State That Never Learns<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Brazil has one of the largest deficits on the planet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>According to a report published by G1 on January 14, 2025 (<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/g1.globo.com\/economia\/noticia\/2025\/01\/14\/brasil-tem-um-dos-maiores-deficits-nominais-do-mundo-e-alta-da-divida-deve-se-intensificar-diz-btg.ghtml\">link to the article<\/a>), based on a study by BTG Pactual, Brazil will have, in 2024 and 2025, <strong>one of the largest nominal deficits in the world<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The projections are blunt:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nominal deficit of <strong>7.8% of GDP in 2024<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nominal deficit of <strong>8.6% of GDP in 2025<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Among the major global economies\u2014both developed and emerging\u2014Brazil is second only to Bolivia in fiscal mismanagement. Meanwhile, projected gross debt is expected to reach <strong>86% of GDP by 2026<\/strong>, demonstrating a trajectory of increasing debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The study warns: even after the pandemic shock, most countries reduced their deficits. Brazil, however, is following the opposite path, deteriorating its public finances at a faster rate than the average for emerging and even developed economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The new normal: deficit as state policy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically, high deficits should be seen as exceptions\u2014temporary responses to specific crises. In Brazil, however, the deficit has become a structural policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strategy is clear:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Expanding social spending and state investment without rebalancing real revenue<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Relying on uncertain extraordinary revenues to meet goals<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Postpone structural cuts to privileges, subsidies and inefficiencies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>According to BTG&#039;s own report, the current government estimates that it will meet the target of <strong>zero primary deficit in 2024<\/strong> \u2014 but based on <strong>R$ 178 billion in uncertain revenues<\/strong>, including unguaranteed revenues and measures that are difficult to implement politically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the organic growth of public debt, associated with the perception of high risk, puts pressure on interest rates and makes the economic environment more unstable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The fiscal vicious cycle explained<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>High debt imposes immediate and perverse costs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>High fiscal risk \u2192 Higher risk premium<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Higher risk premium \u2192 Higher interest rates demanded by investors<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Higher interest rates \u2192 More debt service expenses<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>More debt spending \u2192 Less room for productive investment<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Every extra real spent without any basis not only worsens the problem but also fuels it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BTG highlights that part of the cost of debt is driven by the expansionary fiscal policy itself, which puts pressure on inflation, requires higher basic interest rates (Selic), and increases the cost of financing for the government itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The False Dilemma: Growth at Any Price<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Official rhetoric often argues that &quot;spending more&quot; boosts growth. In the short term, it may even work\u2014artificially. But without solid fiscal foundations, growth is illusory, fragile, and paves the way for deeper crises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The report indicates that, even with growth above <strong>3.5% in 2024<\/strong>, the deficit will remain exorbitant, and the debt will continue to rise. This reveals that <strong>growing without fiscal discipline doesn&#039;t solve the problem \u2014 it just postpones the collapse<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The invisible effect: inflation, devaluation and impoverishment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to debt, the unstable fiscal scenario directly impacts people&#039;s pockets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Puts pressure on the exchange rate (devaluation of the real)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Makes imported products more expensive<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It feeds domestic inflation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Raises the cost of living<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The study itself mentions that the real has already reached <strong>levels above R$ 6<\/strong> in recent times \u2014 and should continue to be pressured by the perception of risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The political elite can protect itself. Those who can&#039;t are workers, entrepreneurs, and small investors\u2014all condemned to foot the bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion: the State that does not cut is the State that condemns<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>BTG&#039;s diagnosis is clear: Brazil is experiencing an escalation of debt that, although aggravated by global factors, is mostly <strong>self-inflicted<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>High deficits and rising debt are not inevitable phenomena. They are the result of deliberate political choices: the choice not to cut privileges, the choice to expand the state apparatus, the choice to sustain a power structure at the expense of the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the government insists on postponing reforms and selling accounting illusions, the country approaches, year after year, a new breaking point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The nominal deficit is more than just a number in the BTG report \u2014 <strong>is the portrait of a State that refuses to mature.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Estudo do BTG Pactual mostra que o Brasil ter\u00e1 um dos maiores d\u00e9ficits nominais do mundo em 2024 e 2025. Esta an\u00e1lise revela como o Estado brasileiro transformou o d\u00e9ficit em pr\u00e1tica permanente, aprofundando a d\u00edvida p\u00fablica e sacrificando a liberdade econ\u00f4mica do pa\u00eds.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":558,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow55rbCw:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[438,439,435,236,15,432,428,301,437],"class_list":["post-557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analise-economica","tag-btg-pactual","tag-crise-economica","tag-deficit-nominal","tag-divida-publica","tag-economia-brasileira","tag-endividamento-estatal","tag-gastos-do-governo","tag-politica-fiscal","tag-risco-fiscal"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}