{"id":272,"date":"2025-04-10T03:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T03:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/?p=272"},"modified":"2025-04-10T00:33:19","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T00:33:19","slug":"a-nova-era-do-isolamento-omc-preve-queda-de-80-no-comercio-entre-eua-e-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/a-nova-era-do-isolamento-omc-preve-queda-de-80-no-comercio-entre-eua-e-china\/","title":{"rendered":"The new era of isolation: WTO predicts 80% drop in US-China trade"},"content":{"rendered":"

The warning came from the World Trade Organization: trade disputes between the United States and China could reduce trade between the world\u2019s two largest economies by up to 80%. This is an alarming projection \u2014 not just because of the numbers, but because of the symbolism. Could we be witnessing the end of an era of economic interdependence and the beginning of a new cycle of strategic isolation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From globalization to commercial nationalism<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The promise of the 21st century was one of integrated markets, efficient global supply chains and increased access to goods and capital. But amid a wave of distrust, protectionism and geopolitical tensions, this logic is being reversed. States, once champions of openness, are now becoming its greatest saboteurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China, with its centralized industrial policy, and the US, with increasingly broad and arbitrary tariffs, are leading the movement towards deglobalization<\/strong>. The discourse of \u201ceconomic sovereignty\u201d gains strength \u2014 but what is lost is the capacity for cooperation and shared prosperity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consequences are global \u2014 including for Brazil<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The weakening of trade between the US and China does not only affect them. It affects the entire architecture of international trade, making products more expensive, disrupting supply chains and creating bottlenecks in sectors that depend on global scale \u2014 such as technology, food and energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For countries like Brazil, which oscillate between defensive protectionism and timid openness, the worst choice would be sit on the fence<\/strong>. In a world that is fragmenting, anyone who does not choose a clear model becomes irrelevant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

State intervention and the illusion of control<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

As Hayek warned, \u201cCentral planning does not eliminate uncertainty\u2014it merely transfers it into the hands of those who cannot foresee it.\u201d Governments\u2019 attempts to control trade through tariffs and barriers are an emotional response, not a rational one. And the cost always falls on the average citizen: more expensive, more unstable, less free.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The WTO\u2019s forecast is more than just a given \u2014 it is a sign that the world is heading towards a structural rupture in the way it produces, consumes and cooperates. The question that remains is: will Brazil be a passenger or a protagonist in this new chapter?<\/gwmw><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The World Trade Organization predicts a drop of up to 801 TPI in trade between the United States and China, signaling a new phase of deglobalization. This article analyzes the impacts of this scenario on Brazil and the world, highlighting the risks of trade nationalism, the fragmentation of production chains, and the return of state intervention as an illusory solution. In light of Austrian economic thought, we advocate economic openness as a rational alternative to global insecurity.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":274,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow55rbCw:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[117,34,113,112,115,83,116,94],"class_list":["post-272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitica-economica","tag-cadeias-de-supriemntos","tag-comercio-global","tag-desglobalizacao","tag-estados-unidos-e-china","tag-nascionalismo-economico-2","tag-omc","tag-politica-economica-internacional","tag-tarifas-comerciais"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=272"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}