{"id":142,"date":"2025-04-09T02:22:24","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T02:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/?p=142"},"modified":"2025-04-24T21:17:14","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T21:17:14","slug":"dia-da-libertacao-o-novo-protecionismo-americano-e-seus-impactos-no-brasil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/dia-da-libertacao-o-novo-protecionismo-americano-e-seus-impactos-no-brasil\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cLiberation Day\u201d: the new American protectionism and its impacts on Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"

US President Donald Trump has announced a massive tariff package, dubbed \u201cLiberation Day\u201d<\/strong> (\u201cLiberation Day\u201d), which marks a clear break with the principles of multilateral trade. The proposal establishes reciprocal tariffs<\/strong>: If a country charges 15% tax on an American product, the US will apply the same 15% on the equivalent product coming from that country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The measure is a departure from the logic of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which seeks to guarantee equal treatment between nations, and opens up a scenario of uncertainty and global instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

What's at stake<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With the new package, the US will adopt a reactive stance towards trading partners. The list of possible targets includes economies such as China, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Brazil \u2014 all considered to be countries that impose \u201cunfair\u201d barriers to American products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts point out that the plan also targets non-tariff barriers<\/strong>, such as sanitary or technical requirements, in addition to seeking to correct \u201cexcessive trade surpluses\u201d and practices that disadvantage American companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Impacts for Brazil<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, direct trade between Brazil and the US may not be the most affected. Sectors such as steel, oil and aircraft \u2014 the main export fronts for Brazil \u2014 are not yet on the front line of sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the financial and exchange rate risk is significant<\/strong>. Higher tariffs could put pressure on inflation in the US, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates high for longer. This makes global credit more expensive, the dollar stronger and increases financing costs for emerging countries like Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Possible scenarios<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Recent studies indicate three scenarios for Brazil:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Simple reciprocity<\/strong>: US equals average Brazilian tariffs (currently at 11.3%) \u2192 loss of up to US$ 2 billion<\/strong> in exports.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Tariff of 25% on Brazilian products<\/strong> \u2192 loss of US$ 6.5 billion<\/strong>, with impact of 0.25 pp in inflation<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Brazilian retaliation with 25% tariff on US products<\/strong> \u2192 reduction in imports in US$ 4.5 billion<\/strong> and high of 0.3 pp in the IPCA<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n

    A more hostile environment for free trade<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    This tariff policy also puts at risk US$ 9.5 trillion in global trade<\/strong>, according to estimates. Distrust in the markets increased: American stocks had their worst quarter since 2023, while gold renewed historical highs, and the dollar lost strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The fear of global recession<\/strong> gained momentum. For Brazil, the international environment tends to be more volatile, with lower external demand, more expensive credit, inflationary pressure<\/strong> and devaluation of the real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cLiberation Day\u201d signals more than a trade policy. It is a geopolitical statement<\/strong>, with effects that go far beyond the tariffs themselves. Brazil, even though it is not the main target, must redouble its attention \u2014 both in the diplomatic field and in economic strategies to mitigate the financial impacts of this new paradigm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    US President Donald Trump announced a massive tariff package, dubbed "Liberation Day," marking a clear break with the principles of multilateral trade. The proposal establishes reciprocal tariffs: if a country charges 15% in tariffs on an American product, the US will apply the same 15% to the equivalent product from that country. This measure departs from the logic of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which seeks to guarantee equal treatment among nations, and inaugurates a scenario of global uncertainty and instability. What's at stake? With the new package, the US will adopt a reactive stance towards trading partners. The list of potential targets includes economies such as China, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Brazil\u2014all considered countries that impose "unfair" barriers on American products. Experts point out that the plan also targets non-tariff barriers, such as sanitary or technical requirements, in addition to seeking to correct "excessive trade surpluses" and practices that disadvantage American companies. Impacts for Brazil In the short term, direct trade between Brazil and the US may not be the most affected. Sectors such as steel, oil, and aircraft\u2014Brazil's main export areas\u2014are not yet at the forefront of the sanctions. However, the financial and exchange rate risk is significant. The increase in tariffs could put pressure on inflation in the US, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates for longer. This makes global credit more expensive, strengthens the dollar, and increases financing costs for emerging countries like Brazil. Possible scenarios Recent studies indicate three scenarios for Brazil: A more hostile environment for free trade This tariff policy also puts US$9.5 trillion in global trade at risk, according to estimates. Distrust in the markets has increased: US stocks had their worst quarter since 2023, while gold reached new all-time highs, and the dollar weakened. Fears of a global recession have gained momentum. For Brazil, the international environment tends to be more volatile, with lower external demand, more expensive credit, inflationary pressure, and devaluation of the real. Conclusion: The \u201cDay of Liberation\u201d signals more than just a trade policy. It is a geopolitical declaration, with effects that go far beyond the tariffs themselves. Brazil, even though not the main target, must redouble its attention\u2014both diplomatically and in its economic strategies\u2014to mitigate the financial impacts of this new paradigm.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow55rbCw:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[21,25,81,79,82,32,73,83,78,24,80],"class_list":["post-142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitica-economica","tag-brasil","tag-comercio-internacional","tag-dolar","tag-estados-unidos","tag-exportacao","tag-geopolitica","tag-inflacao","tag-omc","tag-protecionismo","tag-tarifas","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}