{"id":142,"date":"2025-04-09T02:22:24","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T02:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/?p=142"},"modified":"2025-04-24T21:17:14","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T21:17:14","slug":"dia-da-libertacao-o-novo-protecionismo-americano-e-seus-impactos-no-brasil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/dia-da-libertacao-o-novo-protecionismo-americano-e-seus-impactos-no-brasil\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cLiberation Day\u201d: the new American protectionism and its impacts on Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"

US President Donald Trump has announced a massive tariff package, dubbed \u201cLiberation Day\u201d<\/strong> (\u201cLiberation Day\u201d), which marks a clear break with the principles of multilateral trade. The proposal establishes reciprocal tariffs<\/strong>: If a country charges 15% tax on an American product, the US will apply the same 15% on the equivalent product coming from that country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The measure is a departure from the logic of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which seeks to guarantee equal treatment between nations, and opens up a scenario of uncertainty and global instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

What's at stake<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With the new package, the US will adopt a reactive stance towards trading partners. The list of possible targets includes economies such as China, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Brazil \u2014 all considered to be countries that impose \u201cunfair\u201d barriers to American products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts point out that the plan also targets non-tariff barriers<\/strong>, such as sanitary or technical requirements, in addition to seeking to correct \u201cexcessive trade surpluses\u201d and practices that disadvantage American companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Impacts for Brazil<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, direct trade between Brazil and the US may not be the most affected. Sectors such as steel, oil and aircraft \u2014 the main export fronts for Brazil \u2014 are not yet on the front line of sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the financial and exchange rate risk is significant<\/strong>. Higher tariffs could put pressure on inflation in the US, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates high for longer. This makes global credit more expensive, the dollar stronger and increases financing costs for emerging countries like Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Possible scenarios<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Recent studies indicate three scenarios for Brazil:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Simple reciprocity<\/strong>: US equals average Brazilian tariffs (currently at 11.3%) \u2192 loss of up to US$ 2 billion<\/strong> in exports.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Tariff of 25% on Brazilian products<\/strong> \u2192 loss of US$ 6.5 billion<\/strong>, with impact of 0.25 pp in inflation<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Brazilian retaliation with 25% tariff on US products<\/strong> \u2192 reduction in imports in US$ 4.5 billion<\/strong> and high of 0.3 pp in the IPCA<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n

    A more hostile environment for free trade<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    This tariff policy also puts at risk US$ 9.5 trillion in global trade<\/strong>, according to estimates. Distrust in the markets increased: American stocks had their worst quarter since 2023, while gold renewed historical highs, and the dollar lost strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The fear of global recession<\/strong> gained momentum. For Brazil, the international environment tends to be more volatile, with lower external demand, more expensive credit, inflationary pressure<\/strong> and devaluation of the real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cLiberation Day\u201d signals more than a trade policy. It is a geopolitical statement<\/strong>, with effects that go far beyond the tariffs themselves. Brazil, even though it is not the main target, must redouble its attention \u2014 both in the diplomatic field and in economic strategies to mitigate the financial impacts of this new paradigm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    O presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, anunciou um pacote tarif\u00e1rio de grandes propor\u00e7\u00f5es, batizado de \u201cLiberation Day\u201d (“Dia da Liberta\u00e7\u00e3o”), que marca uma ruptura clara com os princ\u00edpios do com\u00e9rcio multilateral. A proposta institui tarifas rec\u00edprocas: se um pa\u00eds cobra 15% de imposto sobre um produto americano, os EUA aplicar\u00e3o os mesmos 15% sobre o produto equivalente vindo desse pa\u00eds. A medida \u00e9 um afastamento da l\u00f3gica da Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Mundial do Com\u00e9rcio (OMC), que busca garantir tratamento igualit\u00e1rio entre as na\u00e7\u00f5es, e inaugura um cen\u00e1rio de incerteza e instabilidade global. O que est\u00e1 em jogo Com o novo pacote, os EUA passar\u00e3o a adotar uma postura reativa em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a parceiros comerciais. A lista de poss\u00edveis alvos inclui economias como China, Uni\u00e3o Europeia, M\u00e9xico, Jap\u00e3o, Coreia do Sul e o Brasil \u2014 todos considerados como pa\u00edses que imp\u00f5em barreiras \u201cinjustas\u201d aos produtos americanos. Especialistas apontam que o plano tamb\u00e9m mira barreiras n\u00e3o tarif\u00e1rias, como exig\u00eancias sanit\u00e1rias ou t\u00e9cnicas, al\u00e9m de buscar corrigir \u201csuper\u00e1vits comerciais excessivos\u201d e pr\u00e1ticas que desvantajam empresas americanas. Impactos para o Brasil No curto prazo, o com\u00e9rcio direto entre Brasil e EUA pode n\u00e3o ser o mais afetado. Setores como a\u00e7o, petr\u00f3leo e aeronaves \u2014 principais frentes de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira \u2014 ainda n\u00e3o est\u00e3o na linha de frente das san\u00e7\u00f5es. Contudo, o risco financeiro e cambial \u00e9 significativo. O aumento das tarifas pode pressionar a infla\u00e7\u00e3o nos EUA, for\u00e7ando o Federal Reserve (Fed) a manter juros elevados por mais tempo. Isso encarece o cr\u00e9dito global, valoriza o d\u00f3lar e aumenta os custos de financiamento para pa\u00edses emergentes como o Brasil. Cen\u00e1rios poss\u00edveis Estudos recentes indicam tr\u00eas cen\u00e1rios para o Brasil: Um ambiente mais hostil ao livre com\u00e9rcio Essa pol\u00edtica tarif\u00e1ria tamb\u00e9m coloca em risco US$ 9,5 trilh\u00f5es em com\u00e9rcio global, segundo estimativas. A desconfian\u00e7a nos mercados aumentou: a\u00e7\u00f5es americanas tiveram o pior trimestre desde 2023, enquanto o ouro renovou m\u00e1ximas hist\u00f3ricas, e o d\u00f3lar perdeu for\u00e7a. O temor de recess\u00e3o global ganhou f\u00f4lego. Para o Brasil, o ambiente internacional tende a ser mais vol\u00e1til, com menor demanda externa, cr\u00e9dito mais caro, press\u00e3o inflacion\u00e1ria e desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o do real. Conclus\u00e3o O \u201cDia da Liberta\u00e7\u00e3o\u201d sinaliza mais do que uma pol\u00edtica comercial. Trata-se de uma declara\u00e7\u00e3o geopol\u00edtica, com efeitos que v\u00e3o muito al\u00e9m das tarifas em si. O Brasil, mesmo n\u00e3o sendo o alvo principal, deve redobrar a aten\u00e7\u00e3o \u2014 tanto no campo diplom\u00e1tico quanto nas estrat\u00e9gias econ\u00f4micas para mitigar os impactos financeiros desse novo paradigma.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow55rbCw:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[21,25,81,79,82,32,73,83,78,24,80],"class_list":["post-142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitica-economica","tag-brasil","tag-comercio-internacional","tag-dolar","tag-estados-unidos","tag-exportacao","tag-geopolitica","tag-inflacao","tag-omc","tag-protecionismo","tag-tarifas","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}