{"id":138,"date":"2025-04-09T01:34:27","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T01:34:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/?p=138"},"modified":"2025-04-24T21:16:51","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T21:16:51","slug":"tarifa-como-fator-decisivo-megale-da-xp-ve-fim-do-aperto-do-bc-mais-proximo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/tarifa-como-fator-decisivo-megale-da-xp-ve-fim-do-aperto-do-bc-mais-proximo\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariff as a Decisive Factor: XP's Megale Sees the End of Central Bank Tightening Nearer"},"content":{"rendered":"

The recent decision by the United States to apply import tariffs on Brazilian steel and aluminum<\/strong> sparked a wave of interpretations in the markets \u2014 and XP's chief economist, Caio Megale<\/strong>, brought a strategic reading: This measure could accelerate the end of the high interest rate cycle in Brazil.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Megale, American tariffs have a direct impact on Brazilian exports<\/strong> and, consequently, on the industrial sector and the prices of inputs. This reduces inflationary pressure<\/strong>, opening space for the Central Bank to bring forward the relief in the Selic rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Key Factors of Megale Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Chain reaction in exports<\/strong>: with higher tariffs, sales to the US may fall, generating excess supply and lower price pressure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • More stable dollar<\/strong>: despite trade tensions, the real maintained a certain resilience, which reinforces the scenario of controlled inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Inflation expectations under control<\/strong>: Megale mentions that inflation cores are anchored, giving room for additional cuts in the Selic rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    XP's Position:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    XP already predicted gradual cuts in the Selic rate<\/strong>, but now sees a chance to anticipation<\/strong> or even an acceleration in the pace of cuts. The new forecast indicates Selic below 9% still in 2025<\/strong>, if the external scenario does not deteriorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why Does It Matter?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    In an environment of low growth and expensive credit<\/strong>, the anticipation of monetary relief may stimulate the economy<\/strong>, especially sectors sensitive to the cost of capital such as retail, construction and technology<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • XP Investments \u2013 Economic Note (Caio Megale)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Bloomberg Line: \u201cXP\u2019s Megale says tariff could bring forward end of BC tightening\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Broadcast, Economic Value, Estad\u00e3o<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Caio Megale, economista-chefe da XP, afirmou que as tarifas impostas pelos EUA sobre o a\u00e7o e o alum\u00ednio brasileiros podem antecipar o fim do ciclo de aperto monet\u00e1rio do Banco Central. A medida tende a reduzir a press\u00e3o inflacion\u00e1ria ao impactar negativamente as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es e o setor industrial, criando espa\u00e7o para cortes mais r\u00e1pidos na Selic. A XP agora projeta uma Selic abaixo de 9% em 2025, o que pode impulsionar setores dependentes de cr\u00e9dito.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":140,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow55rbCw:productID":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[42,15,73,70,72,75,69,74,24,71],"class_list":["post-138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia-e-politica-monetaria","tag-banco-central","tag-economia-brasileira","tag-inflacao","tag-juros","tag-megale","tag-mercado-financeiro","tag-politica-monetaria","tag-selic","tag-tarifas","tag-xp-investimentos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poderemercado.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}