Trade tensions between the United States and other powers have taken on new dimensions in recent weeks. A Jefferies report suggests that Washington may be entering a new phase of aggressive protectionism, with a direct impact on its Latin American partners. The imposition of higher tariffs on imports and the hardening of trade negotiations have reignited the debate on regional vulnerability — and the strategic role that Brazil can assume in this new geopolitical chessboard.
A scenario of risk… and capital flight
As protectionism advances, risk aversion in developed markets also grows. Investors, aware of Wall Street's instability, have begun to seek alternatives in Latin American markets. The MSCI Latam index, for example, outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 20 percentage points in 2025 — a clear sign of capital migration towards emerging economies.
Brazilian agriculture on the front line
In the agricultural sector, the trade dispute between the US and China could open up a favorable flank for Brazil. With Chinese retaliation focused on products such as American soybeans, Brazilian agribusiness can expand its presence in Asia. With a record harvest, consolidated logistics and international recognition, Brazil presents itself as a reliable and strategic alternative to Beijing.
Opportunity or trap?
Despite the apparent room for growth, Brazil needs to avoid the mistake of treating the current situation as a passing fad. Opportunities exist, but they require strategic action and active diplomacy.
It is necessary to protect exposed sectors, negotiate exemptions and take advantage of emerging trade gaps intelligently. More than reacting, Brazil needs to position itself as a regional protagonist — and not just as a spectator of a contest between giants.
Conclusion
The new trade tension in the Americas represents a real risk, but also an opportunity for advancement for those who know how to play it.
For Brazil, the moment demands pragmatism, firm positioning and a long-term vision.
Sources:
Reuters: Brazil assesses response to tariffs
Reuters: Jefferies lists 6 possible outcomes of the trade war
Reuters: China retaliates with agricultural tariffs
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